Afghanistan at a Crossroads: US troop withdrawal and the country's future
United States troops have been stationed in Afghanistan since the terrorist attack on the World Trade Center on Sept. 11, 2001. President Joe Biden has vowed to withdraw the soldiers by the twentieth anniversary, and the process began on May 1.
During the announcement, President Biden said, after consulting with allies, leaders, Congress, Afghan President Ashraf Ghani and others, it’s time to end America’s longest war. “It’s time for American troops to come home,” he said.
Background
The objective that sparked this assignment for the U.S. military was the assassination of al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden, a goal met in 2011. President Biden said the reasons for staying have since “become unclear.”
Former President Donald Trump said he would end “forever wars.” According to the New York Times, he was preparing this withdrawal as his last days in office were nearing, though it was consistently met with resistance from his national security team.
U.S. and Afghan Peace Talks with the Taliban
A comprehensive peace agreement between the Taliban and the United States was signed under the Trump administration in February 2020 as part of a NATO-wide mission: Operation Resolute Support.
The agreement is made up of four parts: The guarantee of no Afghan soil-based attacks on the U.S.; the guarantee of the withdrawal of all foreign forces from Afghanistan; the formation of an intra-Afghan negotiation between the government and Taliban; and the guarantee that a “permanent and comprehensive ceasefire” will be included in the negotiation.
At the time of the agreement, 11 European countries were stationed in Afghanistan, in addition to the U.S. and Australia. It was laid out that all troops would be withdrawn in nine and a half months, which would have been November 2020.
In the three months following the treaty signing, Reuters reported that the Taliban had committed 4,500 attacks in Afghanistan, an increase of 70 percent. The surge in insurgent attacks targeted Afghan forces, both local and national. In November, there was a rise in civilian casualties, marking the number the highest in any year for that month.
The Current Situation
The intra-Afghan negotiations resumed in early January, but, according to the New York Times, have been “stalled by a diplomatic stalemate amid escalating violence.” President Biden’s administration has blamed the Taliban for not upholding the agreement to reduce violence and to publicly cut ties with other terrorist groups. The group has accused the Afghan government of warmongering.
The Biden administration has vowed that “diplomacy and counter-terrorism mechanisms will be reorganized to hold the Taliban accountable.”
The BBC reported on May 4 that former U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton warned of the possibility that the Taliban could retake control. She called it a “wicked problem” and said there are unforeseen consequences of either staying or leaving. Both Clinton and President Biden were supporters of the initial intervention in 2001.
Despite President Biden’s reassurance that the withdrawal would not hurt the U.S.’s reputation, Muska Dastageer, a lecturer in peace and security studies at the American University of Afghanistan in Kabul, told NPR that the United States “has lost considerable leverage over the Taliban in declaring an unconditional withdrawal.”
The Crisis Group suggests that the U.S. “commit to continued support for the peace talks and resolve short-term challenges. The Taliban should commit to a significant reduction of violence, and Afghan political leaders should continue working toward a unified approach to peace.” They also supported the consistency of President Biden’s expectations to begin withdrawing troops by May 2021.
Ashley Jackson of Foreign Policy argued that “if peace talks actually succeed, the Taliban will exert considerable power, if not outright control, in any future government. The consequences for Afghans, particularly women, in areas currently held by the government are likely to be severe.”