Why Countries Need to Quarantine to ‘Flatten the Curve’

Countries around the world are following in China’s footsteps, putting entire communities on lockdown in an effort to “flatten the curve.” Flattening the curve refers to lowering the rate of infection, in order to reduce the number of patients who need limited lifesaving care and equipment.

When done well, like in South Korea, there’s no significant spike in the number of infections. South Korea took brisk measures to test and quarantine suspected cases and people exposed to coronavirus, before an outbreak took hold in the population While other countries see twice as many new cases daily, the number of new Covid-19 cases in South Korea halved in less than a week, starting a continued downward trend of new cases other countries hope to emulate. 

Unlike South Korea, Iran has struggled to contain the spread of the virus within its borders. New cases continue to mount this week, as infections topped 23,000, and that’s just the official count, which some experts suspect may be inaccurate as authorities try to coverup the true toll of COVID-19. Initially slow out of the gate, Iran has imposed more strict containment measures on the country’s population, including temporarily closing schools, universities, and four important pilgrimage sites. Weekly Friday prayers have also been canceled during the outbreak.

When countries fail to flatten the curve, the situation deteriorates quickly, as it has in Italy. Italy’s death toll has been the most tragic, in part because of lax attitudes towards the virus, coupled with the country’s aging population. As of Tuesday, 64,000 Italians have been infected, and more than 6,000 have died, more fatalities than any other country. Because of limited testing capabilities in the country, there could be thousands of uncounted infections, including asymptomatic cases. The Italian government’s delayed response has cost thousands of lives. The whole country ultimately entered quarantine, with non-essential businesses shuttered until April 3.

Curves created by the New York Times

Curves created by the New York Times

The new epicenter of COVID-19 is in New York State, USA, which now accounts for about 6 percent of all global coronavirus cases. The New York metro area is experiencing a comparatively high virus “attack rate”, because of the city’s population density. The virus has been silently spreading, especially in Washington and New York states for weeks, making containment efforts impossible at this point. Around 158 million Americans have been told to stay home from work, at the directive of their respective governors, in the absence of a federally issued shelter in place order from the president.

Many millennials and Gen Zers have failed to heed calls for socially distancing, making the U.S.’s semi-quarantine situation porous and ineffective. No doubt the country’s lack of a nation-wide lockdown will lead to more cases and more deaths. The U.S. president is looking ahead to restarting the country’s economy, but without having even hit the peak of coronavirus cases, many doubt that will be possible in the coming weeks.

Instead, experts insist that the U.S. and other countries should follow Chine’s prescription for ending the pandemic, which is to lockdown the population. China is expected to begin easing restrictions in Hubei Province, where the outbreak began, the in the coming weeks, showing that restrictions are only temporary, when carried out quickly and absolutely. 


Ashley FornaroComment